Our Summary

This study aimed to create a model to predict the risk of death within 30 days after heart surgery for children under 18 in Australia and New Zealand. The researchers used data from every pediatric cardiac surgery that happened between 2013 and 2021, which totalled 14,343 surgeries.

The main goal was to see if machine learning algorithms could predict this risk better than traditional statistical methods. Machine learning is a type of artificial intelligence that learns and improves from experience, similar to how humans do.

The researchers tested three different machine learning methods, and the one that performed the best was called “gradient-boosted tree.” This method was better at predicting 30-day mortality than the other two methods, which were “penalized logistic regression” and “artificial neural networks.”

The factors that were most important in predicting mortality were the patient’s weight, a score that measures the severity of the patient’s condition (STAT score), age, and gender.

This risk prediction model performed better than traditional methods and was as good as two other risk prediction models that are currently used. These findings suggest that machine learning could be a useful tool for predicting clinical risks.

FAQs

  1. What was the main objective of this study on pediatric cardiac surgery?
  2. Which machine learning method was found to be the most effective in predicting 30-day mortality after heart surgery?
  3. What factors were identified as the most important in predicting mortality following pediatric cardiac surgery?

Doctor’s Tip

One helpful tip a doctor might tell a patient about cardiac surgery is to follow post-operative care instructions carefully. This may include taking medications as prescribed, attending follow-up appointments, engaging in cardiac rehabilitation, and making lifestyle changes such as maintaining a healthy diet and staying physically active. By following these instructions, patients can help ensure a successful recovery and reduce the risk of complications.

Suitable For

Patients who are typically recommended for cardiac surgery include those with congenital heart defects, coronary artery disease, heart valve disease, and other serious heart conditions. These patients may have symptoms such as chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue, and dizziness that indicate the need for surgical intervention. Patients with a high risk of complications or death from their heart condition may also be recommended for surgery to improve their quality of life and overall prognosis.

Timeline

Before cardiac surgery:

  • Patient is diagnosed with a heart condition that requires surgical intervention.
  • Patient undergoes preoperative evaluations and tests to assess their overall health and suitability for surgery.
  • Patient meets with the cardiac surgeon and anesthesiologist to discuss the procedure and potential risks.
  • Surgery date is scheduled and patient is instructed on preoperative preparations, such as fasting and medication adjustments.

After cardiac surgery:

  • Patient undergoes the surgical procedure, which may involve open-heart surgery or minimally invasive techniques.
  • Patient is monitored closely in the intensive care unit (ICU) immediately following surgery for any complications.
  • Patient may require mechanical ventilation and other supportive measures to stabilize their condition.
  • Patient gradually transitions to a regular hospital room as they recover, with physical therapy and other interventions to aid in rehabilitation.
  • Patient is discharged from the hospital with instructions for postoperative care, including medications, physical activity restrictions, and follow-up appointments with their medical team.

What to Ask Your Doctor

  1. What is the specific reason for recommending cardiac surgery in my case?
  2. What are the potential risks and complications associated with the surgery?
  3. How experienced are you in performing this type of surgery?
  4. What is the expected recovery time and rehabilitation process after the surgery?
  5. Are there any alternative treatment options available for my condition?
  6. What can I do to prepare for the surgery to improve the outcome?
  7. How long will I need to stay in the hospital after the surgery?
  8. What is the success rate of this type of surgery for patients with similar conditions?
  9. Are there any long-term effects or lifestyle changes I should be aware of post-surgery?
  10. Will I need to follow up with a cardiologist or other specialists after the surgery?

Reference

Authors: Betts KS, Marathe SP, Chai K, Konstantinov I, Iyengar A, Suna J; ANZCORS Collaborative; Venugopal P, Alphonso N. Journal: Eur J Cardiothorac Surg. 2023 Aug 1;64(2):ezad160. doi: 10.1093/ejcts/ezad160. PMID: 37084239